Saturday, 4th of September 2010 |
CSU 83/2010: FERTILITY TRANSITION IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
From the summary:
‘17 of the 30 countries studied show rates of fertility decline
indicative of fertility transition. However, there is significant
variation among countries in fertility levels and trends. This study
also finds some “stalling” in fertility declines in a few countries .
. . [F]or nearly all countries, however, cohort fertility rates for
women born in the most recent past show decreases suggesting little
evidence of an unequivocal reversal in Africa’s fertility transition.’
The complete report, with country specific data, is online at
http://www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pdf/CR23/CR23.pdf
Good reading.
BD
Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Analysis of
Cohort Trends in 30 Countries (English)
Comparative Reports<http://www.measuredhs.com/pubs/Search/search_results.cfm?type=16&srchTp=type&newSrch=1
Publication Topic(s):
Fertility and Fertility
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Author(s):
Stacy E. Sneeringer and ICF Macro, Calverton, Maryland, USA
Abstract
This study examines fertility trends for 30 sub-Saharan African countries
with Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) between 1986 and 2006. The study
uses women’s birth histories to construct panel data that enable calculation
of fertility by mother’s birth cohort. The panel comprises women born
between 1937 and 1990 and covers their fertility behavior between 1952 and
2005. The study’s focus on cohort trends in fertility distinguishes it from
many other studies of fertility transition and enables examination of
women’s fertility over their own lifetimes, rather than what fertility rates
at a single point in time. Over the past five decades, most countries
studied show signs of fertility decline in the cohort measures examined.
Comparing women born between 1950 and 1959 with those born between 1960 and
1969 reveals that 17 of the 30 countries studied show rates of fertility
decline indicative of fertility transition. However, there is significant
variation among countries in fertility levels and trends. This study also
finds some “stalling” in fertility declines in a few countries, as decreases
in fertility become less pronounced than in the past. Fertility decline
stalling for most age groups can be witnessed in the Congo (Brazzaville) and
Madagascar. In several other countries, stalling is only witnessed in
certain age groups, while in some countries fertility is increasing among
certain age groups. Thus these data contain suggestions of stalling
fertility transitions. For nearly all countries, however, cohort fertility
rates for women born in the most recent past show decreases suggesting
little evidence of an unequivocal reversal in Africa’s fertility transition.
The largest percentage fertility declines by age group appear for women aged
15-19. This pattern suggests that women are delaying the start of
reproduction. Beyond this youngest reproductive age group, fertility
declines are similar for younger and older age groups for most countries in
the study. There is some evidence that earlier cohorts have larger fertility
declines among older women, followed by declines among younger women in
subsequent cohorts. The analysis offered here is intended to provide a
starting point for further analysis of the retrospective cohort fertility
data detailed in this report. Retrospective data may suffer from bias
related to recall errors or sample selection. The extent of bias related to
retrospective data is unknown and could be a factor in the trends
represented here. The large number of data tables and figures included in
this report (see Appendix B for data tables and figures for each country
studied) present new opportunities for exploring fertility trends in
sub-Saharan Africa and are included for this purpose.
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