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CSU 83/2010: FERTILITY TRANSITION IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Saturday, 4th of September 2010 Print

CSU 83/2010: FERTILITY TRANSITION IN  SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
 
 From the summary:
 
 ‘17 of the 30 countries studied show rates of fertility decline
 indicative of fertility transition. However, there is significant
 variation among countries in fertility levels and trends. This study
 also finds some “stalling” in fertility declines in a few countries .
 . . [F]or nearly all countries, however, cohort fertility rates for
 women born in the most recent past show decreases suggesting little
 evidence of an unequivocal reversal in Africa’s fertility transition.’
 
 The complete report, with country specific data, is online at
 http://www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pdf/CR23/CR23.pdf
 Good reading.
 
 BD
 
 Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Analysis of
 Cohort Trends in 30 Countries (English)
 
 
 
 
 Comparative Reports<http://www.measuredhs.com/pubs/Search/search_results.cfm?type=16&srchTp=type&newSrch=1
 
 Publication Topic(s):
 
 Fertility and Fertility
 Preferences<http://www.measuredhs.com/pubs/Search/search_results.cfm?newSrch=1&srchTp=advanced&topic=7
 
 
 Author(s):
 
 Stacy E. Sneeringer and ICF Macro, Calverton, Maryland, USA
 
 
 Abstract
 
 This study examines fertility trends for 30 sub-Saharan African countries
 with Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) between 1986 and 2006. The study
 uses women’s birth histories to construct panel data that enable calculation
 of fertility by mother’s birth cohort. The panel comprises women born
 between 1937 and 1990 and covers their fertility behavior between 1952 and
 2005. The study’s focus on cohort trends in fertility distinguishes it from
 many other studies of fertility transition and enables examination of
 women’s fertility over their own lifetimes, rather than what fertility rates
 at a single point in time. Over the past five decades, most countries
 studied show signs of fertility decline in the cohort measures examined.
 Comparing women born between 1950 and 1959 with those born between 1960 and
 1969 reveals that 17 of the 30 countries studied show rates of fertility
 decline indicative of fertility transition. However, there is significant
 variation among countries in fertility levels and trends. This study also
 finds some “stalling” in fertility declines in a few countries, as decreases
 in fertility become less pronounced than in the past. Fertility decline
 stalling for most age groups can be witnessed in the Congo (Brazzaville) and
 Madagascar. In several other countries, stalling is only witnessed in
 certain age groups, while in some countries fertility is increasing among
 certain age groups. Thus these data contain suggestions of stalling
 fertility transitions. For nearly all countries, however, cohort fertility
 rates for women born in the most recent past show decreases suggesting
 little evidence of an unequivocal reversal in Africa’s fertility transition.
 The largest percentage fertility declines by age group appear for women aged
 15-19. This pattern suggests that women are delaying the start of
 reproduction. Beyond this youngest reproductive age group, fertility
 declines are similar for younger and older age groups for most countries in
 the study. There is some evidence that earlier cohorts have larger fertility
 declines among older women, followed by declines among younger women in
 subsequent cohorts. The analysis offered here is intended to provide a
 starting point for further analysis of the retrospective cohort fertility
 data detailed in this report. Retrospective data may suffer from bias
 related to recall errors or sample selection. The extent of bias related to
 retrospective data is unknown and could be a factor in the trends
 represented here. The large number of data tables and figures included in
 this report (see Appendix B for data tables and figures for each country
 studied) present new opportunities for exploring fertility trends in
 sub-Saharan Africa and are included for this purpose.

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