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GLOBAL PROGRESS IN MEASLES CONTROL AND MEASLES MORTALITY REDUCTION

Friday, 19th of December 2008 Print
CSU 53/2008: GLOBAL PROGRESS IN MEASLES CONTROL AND MEASLES MORTALITY
 REDUCTION
 
 For those observing Eid, Hanukkah or Christmas this month, the item below
 is a nice holiday gift.According to Dabbagh and fellow authors, 'during
 2000--2007, approximately 11 million measles deaths worldwide were averted
 because of measles control activities; of these, an estimated 3.6 million
 deaths (33%) were averted as a result of accelerated activities.' Internet
 users should go to http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5748a3.htm ,
 which gives both text and graphics.
 
 It is hard to quantify the impact on measles mortality of IMCI. During a
 recent field trip, I learned that Nigeria estimates a recent decline in its
 measles case fatality rate from 3 to 1.7 percent, primarily because of
 improved case management. Two doses of vitamin A on Days 1 and 2 of
 treatment can have an impact on CFR.
 
 So overall, the news is good. Still, without wanting to rain on anyone's
 parade, we have to note that there are two flies in this ointment:
 
 1) the 197,000 estimated measles deaths for 2007 include 125,000 from
 India, which is unlikely to complete catch-up campaigns in all states and
 Union territories by end 2010, the year of the GIVS target for measles
 mortality reduction. Global measles mortality will go down and stay down
 only when all countries complete their catch-up campaigns and continue with
 well executed follow-up campaigns and routine immunization.
 
 2) building on recent gains in Africa means more contributions from African
 governments, now responsible for 50 percent of the operations costs in
 their follow-up campaigns, and sustained contributions to Africa and
 elsewhere from traditional donors, now in their worst economic crisis since
 1929.
 
 For those with regional interests, I am attaching the WHO/AFRO update from
 this month's Task Force on Immunization.
 
 By the time of next year's World Health Assembly, May 2009, we may have the
 groundwork for a WHA resolution on global measles eradication.
 
 So let us rejoice, but prudently.
 
 Good reading,
 Bob Davis
 
 
 
 
 Progress in Global Measles Control and Mortality Reduction, 2000--2007
 
 
 Despite the availability of a safe and effective vaccine since 1963,
 measles has been a major killer of children in developing countries
 (causing an estimated 750,000 deaths as recently as 2000), primarily
 because of underutilization of the vaccine (1). At the World Health
 Assembly in 2008, all World Health Organization (WHO) member states
 reaffirmed their commitment to achieving a 90% reduction in measles
 mortality by 2010 compared with 2000, a goal that was established in 2005
 as part of the Global Immunization Vision and Strategy (2.). This
 WHO-UNICEF comprehensive strategy for measles mortality reduction ()1.)
 focuses on 47 priority countries.* The strategy's components include 1)
 achieving and maintaining high coverage (90%) with the routinely scheduled
 first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) among children aged 1 year;
 2) ensuring that all children receive a second opportunity for measles
 immunization (either through a second routine dose or through periodic
 supplementary immunization activities [SIAs]†); 3) implementing effective
 laboratory-supported disease surveillance; and 4) providing appropriate
 clinical management for measles cases. This report updates previously
 published reports (3,4) and describes immunization and surveillance
 activities implemented during 2007. Increased routine measles vaccine
 coverage and SIAs implemented during 2000--2007 resulted in a 74% decrease
 in the estimated number of measles deaths globally. An estimated 197,000
 deaths from measles occurred in 2007; of these, 136,000 (69%) occurred in
 the WHO South-East Asian Region. Achievement of the 2010 goal will require
 full implementation of measles mortality reduction strategies, especially
 in the WHO South-East Asian Region.
 
 
 Immunization Activities
 
 
 WHO and UNICEF use data from administrative records and surveys to estimate
 routine MCV1 coverage among children aged 1 year (5). Coverage levels
 achieved during measles SIAs are estimated using the reported number of
 doses administered and dividing by the target population.
 
 
 According to WHO and UNICEF estimates, global routine MCV1 coverage has
 continued to improve steadily since 2000, reaching 82% in 2007; however,
 coverage has varied substantially by geographic region (Table 1). Of 23.3
 million infants in 2007 who missed receiving their first dose of measles
 vaccine through routine immunization services by the age of 1 year, 15.2
 million (65%) resided in eight highly populated countries: India (8.5
 million children), Nigeria (2.0 million), China (1.0 million), Ethiopia
 (1.0 million), Indonesia (0.9 million), Pakistan (0.8 million), the
 Democratic Republic of the Congo (0.6 million), and Bangladesh (0.5
 million)
 
 
 During 2000--2007, a second opportunity§ for measles immunization was
 provided in the 47 priority countries to approximately 576 million children
 aged 9 months--14 years through SIAs. In 2007, 20 (43%) of these 47
 countries conducted SIAs, reaching approximately 91 million children; 16
 (80%) of these SIAs integrated at least one other child-survival
 intervention (e.g., insecticide-treated bed nets, vitamin A supplements,
 and deworming medication) (),Table 2).
 
 
 Surveillance Activities
 
 
 Effective surveillance for measles entails establishing case-based
 surveillance that includes case investigation and laboratory testing of
 samples from all suspected measles cases (6).¶. In 2007, 162 (84%) of the
 193 WHO member states had implemented case-based surveillance, compared
 with 120 (62%) countries in 2004 (the first year for which data are
 available). In 2007, 178 countries (92%), compared with 168 countries (88%)
 in 2000, reported measles surveillance data to WHO and UNICEF through the
 annual Joint Reporting Form. Worldwide, the number of reported measles
 cases decreased from 852,937 in 2000 to 279,006 in 2007 (a 67% decrease).
 All regions reported a decrease in reported measles cases, with the highest
 percentage reduction occurring in the Americas** and the African regions
 (93% and 85%, respectively), and the lowest in the South-East Asian Region
 (12%). The WHO measles and rubella laboratory network, which in 1998
 consisted of fewer than 40 laboratories, by the end of 2007 had expanded to
 679 national and subnational laboratories providing support for measles and
 rubella surveillance in 164 countries.
 
 
 Mortality Estimates for 2007
 
 
 Despite the progress made on measles surveillance and reporting globally,
 measles incidence remains underreported, and complete and reliable
 surveillance data on the number of measles deaths are lacking for many
 countries, particularly those with the highest disease burden. To estimate
 measles mortality, WHO used the published natural history model (7) and
 updated it with 1) the most recent time-series of population data (8), 2)
 WHO-UNICEF routine immunization coverage estimates and reported coverage of
 SIAs, and 3) measles incidence as reported to WHO. This process produced
 the 2007 mortality estimates and permitted updating of previous estimates
 for 2000--2006.
 
 
 During 2000--2007, global mortality attributed to measles was reduced by
 74%, from an estimated 750,000 deaths in 2000 to 197,000 deaths in 2007 (
 Table 1, Figure:). Approximately 90% of estimated measles deaths occurred
 among children aged <5 years: 679,000 (95% uncertainty interval:
 490,000--890,000) in 2000 and 177,000 (126,000--240,000) in 2007. The
 largest regional percentage reduction in estimated measles mortality during
 2000--2007 occurred in the Eastern Mediterranean (90%) and African (89%)
 regions, accounting for 16% and 63% of the global reduction in measles
 mortality, respectively. The 47 priority countries accounted for 98% of the
 total estimated number of deaths globally in 2007, whereas the reduction in
 measles deaths among these countries accounted for 96% of the global
 reduction in measles deaths during 2000--2007.
 
 
 During 2000--2007, approximately 11 million measles deaths worldwide were
 averted because of measles control activities; of these, an estimated 3.6
 million deaths (33%) were averted as a result of accelerated activities
 (i.e., increases in routine vaccination coverage and implementation of
 measles SIAs).
 
 
 Reported by: A Dabbagh, PhD, M Gacic-Dobo, D Featherstone, PhD, P Strebel,
 MBChB, JM Okwo-Bele, MD, Dept of Immunization, Vaccines, and Biologicals,
 World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. E Hoekstra, MD, P Salama,
 MD, United Nations Children's Fund, New York, New York. A Uzicanin, MD,
 Global Immunization Div, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory
 Diseases, CDC.
 
 
 Editorial Note:
 
 
 During 2007, further progress was made toward achieving the 2010 global
 measles mortality reduction goal of a 90% reduction in measles mortality
 compared with 2000. Increased MCV1 coverage, together with the accelerated
 efforts to vaccinate children through SIAs during 2000--2007, resulted in a
 74% decrease in the estimated number of measles deaths globally during this
 period.
 
 
 The largest percentage decrease in estimated measles deaths occurred in the
 Eastern Mediterranean Region, which appears to have already met the 2010
 goal. An important contributor to the rapid reduction in measles mortality
 in the Eastern Mediterranean Region during 2007 is the intensification of
 SIAs in the region, which resulted in more than twice the number of
 children reached through SIAs in 2007 compared with 2006. The African
 Region was the largest contributor to the global decline in measles
 mortality, accounting for 63% of the decline. However, a number of
 countries have experienced outbreaks of more than 1,000 cases in 2007
 (e.g., the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Uganda, and Tanzania)
 because of gaps in MCV1 coverage and children missed during SIAs. The
 reduction in the South-East Asian Region was substantially smaller because
 India, which alone accounts for 67% of the region's population, has not yet
 begun large-scale measles SIAs.
 
 
 The number of reported measles cases also declined by approximately two
 thirds worldwide during 2000--2007. However, direct comparisons between
 trends in estimated deaths and trends in reported cases should be made with
 caution because the static model used to estimate deaths does account for
 the cyclical nature of measles (7). Furthermore, measles incidence is
 grossly underreported, and the mathematical model used to estimate global
 measles mortality adjusts for underreporting of cases (7.).
 
 
 The prevention of an estimated 3.6 million additional deaths during
 2000--2007 because of accelerated measles control activities highlights the
 potential future benefits of continuing the ongoing efforts of the Measles
 Initiative†† and international partners (e.g., the GAVI Alliance and the
 International Finance Facility for Immunization) to support country efforts
 to strengthen routine immunization and implementation of SIAs. In addition
 to the primary objective, measles SIAs provide the platform for delivery of
 other child survival interventions, which attracts high-level political
 support, allows for resources to be pooled, and increases community
 participation (9).
 
 
 As countries with high measles disease burden approach the Global
 Immunization Vision and Strategy goal of a 90% reduction in global measles
 mortality by 2010, major challenges should be addressed. First, accelerated
 measles mortality reduction activities (e.g., SIAs coupled with further
 efforts to improve routine MCV1 coverage) need to be successfully
 implemented in the South-East Asian Region, especially in India, which
 contributes substantially to the global burden of measles. Second, to
 sustain the current reduction in measles deaths, vaccination systems need
 to be improved to ensure that 90% of infants receive their MCV1 on
 schedule. Third, countries need to monitor accumulation of susceptible
 children (by evaluating routine MCV1 and SIA coverage data by birth cohort)
 and conduct follow-up SIAs when the number of susceptible children
 approaches the size of a birth cohort. Fourth, disease surveillance systems
 need to be strengthened at all levels to enable case-based surveillance
 with testing of clinical specimens from all suspected cases. Fifth, measles
 case management should be improved (e.g., by including use of vitamin A).
 Finally, further efforts are needed to ensure sustainability of measles
 control activities. Recent shortfalls in the donor funds available to
 support measles mortality reduction activities (10) make increased country
 responsibility and political commitment critical for both achieving and
 sustaining the goal of a 90% measles mortality reduction by 2010.
 
 
 References
 1. World Health Organization, United Nations Children's Fund. Measles
 mortality reduction and regional elimination strategic plan
 2001--2005. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; 2001.
 Available at
 http://www.who.int/vaccines-documents/docspdf01/www573.pdf.
 2. World Health Organization. Global immunization vision and strategy
 2006--2015. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; 2005.
 Available at
 http://www.who.int/vaccines-documents/docspdf05/givs_final_en.pdf.
 3. CDC. Progress in reducing global measles deaths, 1999--2004. MMWR
 2006;55:247--9.
 4. CDC. Progress in global measles control and mortality reduction,
 2000--2006. MMWR 2007;56:1237--41.
 5. World Health Organization, United Nations Children's Fund. WHO/UNICEF
 review of national immunization coverage, 1980--2006. Geneva,
 Switzerland: World Health Organization; 2007. Available at
 http://www.who.int/immunization_monitoring/routine/immunization_coverage/en/index4.html
 .
 6. World Health Organization. Module on best practices for measles
 surveillance. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; 2001.
 Available at
 http://www.who.int/vaccines-documents/docspdf01/www617.pdf.
 7. Wolfson L, Strebel P, Gacic-Dobo M, et al. Has the 2005 measles
 mortality reduction goal been achieved? A natural history modelling
 study. Lancet 2007;369:191--200.
 8. United Nations Secretariat, Population Division, Department of
 Economic and Social Affairs. World population prospects: the 2006
 revision. New York, NY: United Nations Secretariat; 2007. Available
 at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/English.pdf.
 9. CDC. Progress in measles control---Kenya, 2002--2007. MMWR
 2007;56:969--72.
 10. American Red Cross. Urgent funding needed to reach the 2010
 measles goal. Washington, DC: American Red Cross; 2008. Available at
 http://www.redcross.org/pressrelease/0,1077,0_314_8274,00.html.
 
 
 * Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia,
 Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic
 Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
 Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Laos,
 Liberia, Madagascar, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger, Nigeria,
 Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra
 Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Timor-Leste, Togo, Uganda, Tanzania, Vietnam, Yemen,
 and Zambia.
 
 
 † SIAs generally are carried out using two approaches. An initial,
 nationwide catch-up SIA targets all children aged 9 months--14 years; it
 has the goal of eliminating susceptibility to measles in the general
 population. Periodic follow-up SIAs then target all children born since the
 last SIA. Follow-up SIAs generally are conducted nationwide every 2--4
 years and target children aged 9--59 months; their goal is to eliminate any
 measles susceptibility that has developed in recent birth cohorts and to
 protect children who did not respond to the first measles vaccination.
 
 
 § Second opportunity for immunization is provided to all children,
 including those who were not reached with MCV1 and those who were
 previously vaccinated (because approximately 15% of children vaccinated
 with a single dose at age 9 months will fail to develop immunity to
 measles).
 
 
 ¶ Case-based surveillance includes investigation of every suspected measles
 case and routine reporting of detailed epidemiologic and laboratory data
 for each confirmed measles case.
 
 
 ** The Region of the Americas interrupted indigenous measles transmission
 in November 2002; cases reported since 2002 are imported or linked to
 importation.
 
 
 †† The Measles Initiative comprises the American Red Cross, CDC, the United
 Nations Foundation, UNICEF, and WHO.

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