Wednesday, 1st of April 2015 |
REDUCED VACCINATION AND THE RISK OF MEASLES AND OTHER CHILDHOOD INFECTIONS POST-EBOLA
Takahashi S1, Metcalf CJ2, Ferrari MJ3, Moss WJ4, Truelove SA4, Tatem AJ5, Grenfell BT6, Lessler J7.
Abstract below; full text is available to journal subscribers.
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has caused substantial morbidity and mortality. The outbreak has also disrupted health care services, including childhood vaccinations, creating a second public health crisis. We project that after 6 to 18 months of disruptions, a large connected cluster of children unvaccinated for measles will accumulate across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. This pool of susceptibility increases the expected size of a regional measles outbreak from 127,000 to 227,000 cases after 18 months, resulting in 2000 to 16,000 additional deaths (comparable to the numbers of Ebola deaths reported thus far). There is a clear path to avoiding outbreaks of childhood vaccine-preventable diseases once the threat of Ebola begins to recede: an aggressive regional vaccination campaign aimed at age groups left unprotected because of health care disruptions.
Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
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41034881 |
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