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PROJECTIONS OF GLOBAL HEALTH OUTCOMES FROM 2005 TO 2060

Thursday, 2nd of June 2011

 

The base model projects that deaths from communicable diseases (CDs) will decline by 50%, whereas deaths from both non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries will more than double. Considerable cross-national convergence in life expectancy will occur.

 

Full text is at http://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/10-083766.pdf

 

Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060

using the International Futures integrated forecasting model

Barry B Hughes,a Randall Kuhn,a Cecilia M Peterson,a Dale S Rothman,a

José R Solórzano,a Colin D Mathersb & Janet R Dicksona

a Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, 2201 S. Gaylord St., Denver, CO

80208 United States of America.

b Evidence and Information for Policy Cluster, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.

Correspondence to Randall Kuhn (e-mail: rkuhn@du.edu).

 

Objective To develop an integrated health forecasting model as part of the International

Futures (IFs) modelling system.

 

Methods The IFs model begins with the historical relationships between

economic and social development and cause-specific mortality used by the Global

Burden of Disease project but builds forecasts from endogenous projections of these

drivers by incorporating forward linkages from health outcomes back to inputs like

population and economic growth. The hybrid IFs system adds alternative structural

formulations for causes not well served by regression models and accounts for changes

in proximate health risk factors. Forecasts are made to 2100 but findings are reported to

2060.

 

Findings The base model projects that deaths from communicable diseases

(CDs) will decline by 50%, whereas deaths from both non-communicable diseases

(NCDs) and injuries will more than double. Considerable cross-national convergence in

life expectancy will occur. Climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural yield will cause

little excess childhood mortality from CDs, although other climatehealth pathways were

not explored. An optimistic scenario will produce 39 million fewer deaths in 2060 than a

pessimistic one. Our forward linkage model suggests that an optimistic scenario would

result in a 20% percent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, despite

one billion additional people. Southern Asia would experience the greatest relative

mortality reduction and the largest resulting benefit in per capita GDP.

 

Conclusion Long-term, integrated health forecasting helps us understand the

links between health and other markers of human progress and offers powerful insight

into key points of leverage for future improvements.